Pandemic report stresses need to be prepared

The Emerging Risks Team has issued a new report on pandemics.

The Emerging Risks Team at Lloyd’s has issued a new report on the threat posed by a global pandemic.

The report concludes that a pandemic is inevitable, explaining that with historic recurrence rates of 30-50 years it is prudent to assume that a pandemic will occur sometime in the future.

Trevor Maynard, Manager, Emerging Risks, at Lloyd’s and the report’s author says: “The significant message is that society should not optimise to one particular scenario as a worst case. Much has been said of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic, which is said to have killed up to 100 million people worldwide. While Avian Flu is seen as the most likely next pandemic, we have to ensure we are prepared for other types of pandemics that may require different responses and pose different challenges —some of which may well have higher rates of mortality than flu.”

The report explores the threat of pandemic in terms of insured losses, with Maynard saying the economic impact could be significant depending on the scenario.

“The threat of pandemic to the global economy cannot be underestimated,” he explains. “If you look at the example of a recent limited pandemic, such as SARS, the regional economic impact was severe and a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak,